Outage Prediction for Electricity Infrastructure (1/3)
We have developed analytical frameworks for understanding and predicting outages, cascading failures, and service interruptions during heat waves, many of which could spark wildfires.
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Taking Legal Action Against Bias in Utility Regulations and Climate Change Studies
Industry regulators have discarded heat wave data and academics over-estimated impacts.
At SDManaged, we don't just check the math, we check the formulae, data, and assumptions.
We are not impressed by equivocal platitudes verbalized with emotions, or pseudoscience.
We are doctors, and we are prepared to go to court and testify on behalf of our clients.
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The Difference Between Historical Variations in Temperature and Climate Change Projections
Case study Los Angeles. Heat waves occur naturally and their magnitudes vary from year to year. The hottest recorded day was June 3, 1985 at 43.3 °C (109.9 °F). According to some climate model projections, heat waves could be hotter in the future.
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Differences in Temperature Projections From Different Climate Change Models
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has standardized 4 climate change scenarios (RCPs). There are 32 accepted models that produce different results. This figure shows the difference in outputs from the models for the lowest and highest RCPs by mid- and end-of-century which vary by more than 5 °C (9 °F).
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Speculating on Public Perceptions via Utility Stock Trading
Following news about California's wildfires, climate change, and liability accusations, PG&E's stock lost a cumulative $20 billion USD (90%) in market capitalization and was removed from the S&P 500 index. Will PG&E's stock recover? What other utilities could see stock crashes next?

Advanced Mapping Tools for Advanced Infrastructure Analytics
What are the assets, where are they, what are their critical performance characteristics, and what environmental conditions do they operate under? SDManaged has been developing specifications for a real-time asset monitoring system for our clients. We know it can be hard for some folks to imagine, so just look at these images as if you're looking at artist concept sketches during a movie pitch.
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Outage Prediction for Electricity Infrastructure (2/3)
If we apply accurate historical weather data to infrastructure systems, then we can see that over half of SCE's system is overloaded during heat waves at historical temperatures. This begs the question as to whether or not the recent outages in Los Angeles could have been reasonably avoided. Probably, and if so, who's at fault? Were planning and operations conducted in compliance with ISO31000 Risk Management standards and NERC CIP physical security standards? If not, should SCE be allowed to pass on the costs of negligence to ratepayers? Or should the regulators be held liable?
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Overcoming Software and Data Limitations
At SDManaged, we don't blindly accept results from other companies' complex software models, or accept limitations of what they can or can't do, no matter how "prestigious" their brand. We're doctors, we know better. We audit, verify, validate, modify, work around, and/or do whatever it takes to get investor-grade data and results for our clients.
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Outage Prediction for Electricity Infrastructure (3/3)
Several risk metrics already exist for utility assets, but by incorporating better data into assessments we can get better insights to manage risks. Being compliant with the latest risk and security standards is not just the right thing to do, it increases institutional business intelligence too.
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Uncovering Energy Theft
As part of our climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation plan for the California Energy Commission, SDManaged modeled electricity consumption for 2.3 million buildings in Los Angeles County. We verified model accuracy across multiple sources, including SCE's reported loading for 245 substations in their publicly available DERiM data set. Our model results matched DERiM data within 15%, except for seven anomalies which we reported to internal operations audit to check for errors in data entry or energy theft.
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Deconstructing the "Duck Curve" for Advanced Renewables, EV, and Storage Strategies
If we look at the differences between electricity demand and generation from solar PV, then we can begin to understand how marginal production value changes with higher penetration levels. By quantifying uncertainties we can develop advanced implementation and arbitrage strategies that align market incentives with system stability. How long can regulators continue to implement heavy handed policies (i.e. mandatory rooftop solar) before California sees market reform? Will regulators reform the market structure on their own, or will they wait until ratepayers make a court case of it?

Merging Transportation and Electricity Infrastructure for a Cleaner Future
As California (and the world) aim to de-carbonize the transportation and electricity sectors, stakeholders are looking for ways to synergize investments. This geographic web tool shows respective greenhouse gas emissions inventories from 2000-2008.
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Translating Risk Assessment Into Investment Strategy
An effective risk management strategy helps the organization do a lot more than avoid bankruptcy.
E.g. strategically site new assets for best performance across multiple criteria.
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© 2019 Daniel Burillo